2020-12-10 - 5 losses

 5 losses today. This method is still being backtested. The discretionary element of scrip selection and entries make it difficult to backtest the system with any confidence.

Live tweets of today's trades

 

 

2020-12-09 - Trying the Range Compression Trading System once again

 Today, I tried my hand again at the Range Compression Trading System that I used to trade some years ago. This time there some changes, though the concepts are very much the same. 

I had these mottos for the Range Compression Trading System:

 

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Say NO to small profits, Say NO to big losses.

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Be the Hunted

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Those remain. Today, I was trading the system on the M3 charts. This version of the Range Compression Trading System is mechanical. The only discretionary element that I am allowing is in scrip selection and entry point selection. The entry criteria is slightly different from the earlier versions of these trading system. Also, trailing begins much later than in the earlier version.

Today, I got an early entry in NIFTY and that held throughout the day. It did not move enough to initiate trailing.

 

Usually I do not post mechanical trades, but...

My live tweets of today's trade.

 

 

2020-12-07 - Regression

 Visually, today's trades look worse than those of Friday. Tonight, I will have to decide whether to continue with discretionary trading.... Almost decided. My confidence is slow, and it looks like I don't have the skill.

Live tweets of today's trades

I am done with this round of discretionary trading.

— Bakwaas Trading (@BakwaasTrading) December 8, 2020

2020-12-04 - At the end of my tether

 Call it wrapped thinking, but I am satisfied about two things:

1. I thought my entry setups were good, expect for the frustration trade in RELIANCE.
2. I kept my initial Stop Losses small.
   

Would patience have given me better entry with such small Stop Loss? I don't think so. With a larger stop loss? Perhaps.

Hardly any of my entries worked. I was not even able to trail my SL. So, objectively, weren't the entries bad? But pictorially they look good to me.

The first trade in BANKNIFTY moved, but I trailed the Stop Loss just a bit too quickly. In the last trade in ICICIBANK, I trailed slower. Quick trailing would have got me out earlier, maybe at breakeven. Everyday, I am flipping between having tight SLs and loose SLs.At the end of the day, my thinking was that small initial Stop Losses are fine, because in any case I have a tendency to get into losing trades. What's the point of losing bigger then. I could trail slower though, because the important thing is to catch the big move. Getiing out quick from a trade - whether in profit or loss - gets me faster into the next losing trade. So moving the initial Stop Losses slower might work.

I have almost given up on this round of discretionary trading. It's been another frustrating round. The objective of trying this out - to minimize (or eliminate) losing days - seems remote.Not sure if I will continue to trade discretionary on Monday. Last year, my discretionary trading trial had lasted whole of 5 days.

My live trading tweets today until I stopped tweeting.

2020-12-03 Tilting at windmills

Today's trading plan was to have a tight initial stop, and then mechanically trail slower than the previous days. It was wrong, since in the end it was like trading a untested mechanical trading system. I knew that right at the beginning - it goes against my rationale for trying out discretionary trading. Even a untested semi-mechanical system does give a sense of comfort - the possibility to blaming the "system"instead of taking full responsibility for the actions.

But I was psychologically damaged from yesterday's losses, and did not want to do the right thing. In the end, the results forced me to drop the plan, and concentrate on discretion. So the last 3 trades - one in HDFCLIFE and two in MARUTI were completely discretionary.

 

In MARUTI, I was tilting at the windmills - shorting an uptrend. On the previous days, a failed short would have made me go long, but today the plan was to avoid SAR. Even in the discretionary trades towards the end, I wanted to avoid SARs. Results of a couple of days in the last two weeks have been badly affected by SAR trades - including yesterday.

Tomorrow, let be play my discretion to the hilt. SAR will be decided by discretion. Entry will be discretionary. Trailing will be discretionary.

Live tweets of today's trades before I stopped tweeting.

2020-12-02 - There goes my plan

 I had this plan to not have a single losing day in December. That is the whole point of these discretionary trades - to minimize the number of losing days. My mechanical trading systems give me between 30-50% winning days - about 80-90% winning months - but still hurt when there are a couple of consecutive losing months. I am hoping to not have losing days with discretionary trading. High hopes since in my years of day trading, I have never had a month without a losing day.

Today got whipped in SAR trades in BHARTIARTL and BANKNIFTY. That was the improvised plan for today. All would have been forgiven had I been able to catch the V reversal after 2PM. But by then I had lost the confidence needed to take SAR trades.

Just posting my charts here with no commentary. My live tweets for the day are here. My whole approach has to be reviewed. Anyways the tweets are available in case I want to analyze the trades in detail later.

2020-12-01 - OK day

 The day open had good volumes in most scrips, but I was undecided on the direction. The first half was boring. Nothing much happened. Initially, I got into a NIFTY long, and then a BANKNIFTY short. I would have avoided both these trades in favor of some other, if I had looked at other charts earlier. But these trades turned out better than the trades that I would have preferred. Serendipity?

It was a trending day for NIFTY and many other scrips, but took shorts in RELIANCE and NIFTY. Days can turn, I just looked at the setup. A long in INFY did not work because of tight SL. Then a bad trade in NIFTY, the kind that gave me losses in the first half on Friday. Towards the end of day, an ICICIBANK short proved good.

Live tweets of today's trades

2020-11-27 - முழு பைத்தியம் - Story of 2 halves

 Yesterday's trading story can be divided into 2 halves. The first half where I did all the wrong things and notched up a big loss. In the second half, I was more careful, watched the charts and was able to halve the loss. On the charts, I separated the halfs with a white dotted line.

 

In the first half, I was trading blindly (literally). I had 8 charts tiled and was impatiently taking every signal on those small charts. This method can work in a backtested mechanical system, but not in discretionary trading. None of the signals worked. I booked losses in each of those trades.

 

I was just trying to enter every time the price range compressed to some extent. 6 trades in all. But getting every one of those wrong? Shouldn't I have won at least one by gambler's luck? What's wrong with statistics? 😡

I was tweeting live during this period. Not that the tweeting affected me. If it had, I would have not tweeted - I know the priorities. The issue was that I had planned to take every signal early, without really looking up the chart.

 

Lesson 1: For discretionary trading, open the charts and study it carefully (duh!!). 

So, after the string of losses, I decided to call it quits for the day, and tweeted so. But then, the compulsive idiot that I am needed to try once more, didn't I?

This time, I looked at the charts more carefully. This time the enlarged charts, not a tiled collage. Didn't matter if I missed some - FOMO be damned.  I already knew that secret:

If I don't trade, I don't get to lose.

And I did miss some. And some I missed because I was trailing quickly. Got to work on the trailing. Some part of my trailing is mechanical - calculated values, not charts. Got to work on it.

In NIFTY, I was able to lock better profit by moving the stop. In HDFCBANK, I regretted not moving the stops lower.

KOTAKBANK -  entered it when it consolidated for a couple of bars with volume and volatility - though I was in two minds about it. Good entry, I think. Trailed mechanically and got out. Undecided about whether that was a good thing or a bad thing??? Then took a short. Dangerous one during a highly volatile period. Almost lost more than planned - see description in chart.

 

Lesson 2: Avoid trades in very high volatility zones. 

Since I had more losses in TATASTEEL, it would have been gratifying if I could get that money back in TATASTEEL. Almost got my chance in the last trade... almost. Got to work on the trailing, but isn't this one of the permanent to do points in trading?

2020-11-26 - One bad trade

 Because of yesterday's debacle, I decided not to enter during high volatility. Was watching SIEMENS, but could not enter during the volatility. Same case with AXISBANK. Later, took entry in AXISBANK when it cooled down. SIEMENS continued to be volatile.

 

Both SIEMENS and AXISBANK would have given good entries during the volatile periods, but that is just my guess.... since my discretionary trades have not been consistent.

 

The first trade in AXISBANK was good. The second was a trade in SIEMENS. The setup was a breakout from an extended narrow range. Had there not been an upper circuit, the initial breakout move would have perhaps gone higher. There was no buying pressure to lock it at the circuit. This loss ruined the day.

 

Meanwhile, AXISBANK jumped from a narrow range. That made me decide to look for narrow range entries. The last two trade - one each in RELIANCE and AXISBANK were from that setup. Did not get much out of them.

 

Live tweets of my trades today.

 

 

 

2020-11-25 - Patience is a virtue

Ok. This where I get back to whining that discretionary trading is not for me. Last year, I was able to trade discretionary for whole of 5 days before I gave up.

Off course, one solution is to trade mechanical. I am already doing that. Major part of capital is on mechanical trades, and I have only put a smaller portion into these discretionary trades.

So, today's IBULHSGFIN trades were as per plan. I wanted to get in early, and reverse until a move came right. That worked to an extent. Couple of those reversals/exits could have been at better prices, but I was not able to get those.

 

Should have been more patient on the SBIN trades, and twice. Badly done. Patience will be included in the plan from tomorrow. What do they say about counting up to 10...

NIFTY - my entries were late on a trending day and did not work out.

Live tweets of today's trades

2020-11-24 - ಹಣೆಬರಹ decides a lot

Today was a regular trading day, though markets hit new high. I got my chances, lost my chances, but did not end up losing money.

 

Started the day with a bad result in GRASIM - maybe I should have waited a couple of minutes. Then, was lucky to catch a move in HCLTECH. Actually, this was the only redeeming trade today. That was followed by a heartbreak in BHARTIARTL. HDFCBANK trade did not move much - I entered towards the end of a trending move. Last trade was greedy one in AXISBANK.

Unless I am able to catch a 3x move during the day, this kind of trading does not give any satisfaction. Yesterday, the last trade gave some satisfaction, but no such luck today. Regret exits had their impact today as well. 

 

Live tweets of these trades.